Between a heavy work schedule, planning a wedding and being a full time commissioner, people continue to ask, "How does he do it? How does he continue to deliver, week-after-week, year-after-year?" The answer is complex, but to make it simple for you; I just make it happen. It's almost as if my day has 30 hours in it. I won't pretend that I can manipulate time, but this private jet I'm on nearly goes Mach and it makes it feel like I am.
For the 8th year in a row, the draft comes and goes. While you cannot win your championship through the draft, you can certainly lose it. I won't name names, but it seems like Cheeno already lost after picking 4 WRs in the first four rounds. it was Ryan-esque. You already know what is coming below, it is the holy grail of post-draft recaps. If you remember last years, I correctly predicted that guys like Cooper Kupp and Quentin Johnston were picked much higher than they should have been, while also predicting that Raheem Mostert and Tua Tagovailoa were great values.
As you review this and either get my praise or hate. Understand that it's your own fault because you drafted these guys. I just preach the gospel. Don't come at me because you fucked it up before we even started. Reminder, my draft grades do not come with an explanation because I shouldn't have to explain myself to justify the grade I give. Keep those oily, pizza-roll-covered twitter fingers to yourself. I don't have time to read the 50 texts because you're all up in your feels. Let's get right into this shit, shall we?
Best Value, Early Rounds
WORZIE, JOE MIXON Round 3, Pick 9
Mixon might be the most unsexy name when it comes to the Best Value category, but when it comes to this draft, he stood out. Mixon is one of the more reliable backs in the league. Rushing for over 1,000 yards, 4 of the last 6 seasons. Missing minimal time compared to many of today's running backs. When you're picking in the top three rounds, your value comes from guys being healthy and reliable each week. While Mixon rarely has massive games, he will provide you a steady stream of points that won't kill you most weeks. Now playing for the Texans, all eyes are on Stroud, Diggs, Collins and Dell through the air, leaving Mixon an opportunity to capitalize on the ground. With minimal competition, I see Mixon potentially finishing as a top-7 RB.
Honorable Mention
Jon, Josh Allen
Round 3, Pick 5
I know what most of you are thinking, since I am a Josh Allen hater. Let it be on record that I still believe Josh Allen is the most overrated QB in the NFL. But there is a difference between the game of football and playing the game of fantasy football. While Josh Allen has a turnover problem that can lead to lost games and relying on his defense to bail him out, the guy scores fantasy points, period. He has finished 1st overall in QB scoring 3 of the last four years, the other time he finished second. While he was the second overall QB taken off the board, it should have come earlier in the draft. With our QB scoring, the QB is meant to be a more valuable position. You can only play one per week, and if you don't have a consistent QB scorer, you put yourself at a significant disadvantage. There are concerns about the Bills offense this year as he is working with a weaker WR core, but it just means he will find a way to get it down on the ground. I want to express, one more time, as a football player, he is overrated.
Worst Value, Early Rounds
CHEENO, MARVIN HARRISON JR. Round 1, Pick 10
For the second year in a row, Cheeno lands as the winner of this award. Kupp last year, and now MHJr. this year. For the record, I believe Harrison Jr. will be a very good WR in the NFL, the downfall in fantasy comes from the offense and his QB Kyler Murray. Kyler has yet to throw for 4,000 yards in a season. Only one time in Kyler's career has he produced a WR that had a 1,000 receiving yard season, that was Hopkins in 2020 who was considered a top-3 WR in the league at the time. When you're drafting a WR in the first round, you're looking for at minimum 1,000 yards and ideally above 1,200. It is a risky pick. With Cheeno already having a deep WR core, all it takes is the first week or two being below average to start discussing a benching of your first round pick.
Honorable Mention Probst, Patrick Mahomes Round 2, Pick 8
It's always tough when you're sitting there and you don't like the WR's or RB's available, so you decide to reach for a QB. I will say, I feel dumb writing this because we are talking about Patrick Mahomes here. It's not like he reached for a mid-tier QB just because he like them. This could be a take that burns in flames, but this KC offense isn't the same machine it used to be. Last year, they relied on their defense and balanced approach to win games, leaving Mahomes to finish 8th in QB scoring. I feel that we are looking at a similar situation this year. Where I expect Mahomes to improve will be his turnover rate, where he threw a career high 14 interceptions.
Best Value, Mid Rounds
COMMISH, EVAN ENGRAM Round 7, Pick 4
This is where winners are made. The mid-rounds produce gems that can land you a run to the ever-elusive championship. I'm not even sure half this league knows what Evan Engram did last year. Finished TE-2 in PPR scoring, finished 12th in the league in targets among all pass catchers with 143, first among all TE's. Ridley is gone, Zay Jones is gone, leaving 41% of the target share up for grabs. Who does that typically go to? The players that the QB has the most confidence in. Engram was the 7th TE off the board in this years draft and will have the opportunity to finish as a top-3 TE. Value, value, value.
Honorable Mention Jared, Calvin Ridley Round 9, Pick 6
Titans are a mystery this year. New coach and a lot of new offensive players. Reminds me of the Chargers this year, too. We know Levis has a big arm and we know Ridley is one of the better deep ball catchers. With a WR room that consists of a slot-only Tyler Boyd and an aging DeAndre Hopkins, Ridley has the ability to set himself apart as the WR1 for this team. I'd say Ridley is due for a bounce back year, but he finished as the WR 18 in 2023, not much to bounce back from. If he just has a similar year, you're looking at great value in the 9th round, considering he was drafted in the 2nd last year.
Worst Value, Mid Rounds
NATHAN, RAHEEM MOSTERT Round 7, Pick 1
Mostert is a familiar name on these rankings, he was mentioned in 2023 as the best value for the late rounds. This year, I see a different story. What changed? He is going into the 10th season in the NFL, having turned 32 last year. 2023 was his first year rushing for over 1,000 yards and his true value came from finding the endzone 21 times last year, accounting for 47% of his total fantasy points. You don't get breakout years for running backs in their 10th season, we call this anomalies. With the competition of Achane, and rookie Jaylen Wright, Mostert will come back to earth for a sub-par season and will find himself a steady spot on Nathan's bench. This all assumes he stays healthy, which has been the downfall for him throughout his career.
Honorable Mention Ryan, Najee Harris Round 7, Pick 2
If anyone remembers the 2023 Steelers season, which I can't imagine any of you do as it was pretty forgettable, Najee looked like he was running with sand bags tied to his feet. It was obvious Jaylen Warren was the more explosive and agile runner of the two backs. I've admittedly always been a Najee critic, he gets his stats based off volume, not production. Stats are stats at the end of the day for fantasy, but he's not efficient. His carries continue to decline since his rookie year and it's only a matter of time before Jaylen takes over the primary role in the backfield. Najee is in the final year of his contract and they declined his 5th year option, I believe they'd rather pay Warren over Najee as the long term option.
Best Value, Late Rounds
JARED, JOSH PALMER Round 14, Pick 5
I understand why Palmer fell this late, it starts with new offense that is slated to run the ball more. Chargers have an inexperienced WR core that has zero notable names to the average ball-knower, and this is what makes Palmer so valuable in this spot. Let's do some quick math; Throughout Herbert's career, he averages a little over 39 passing attempts per game. Let's reduce that by 25% bringing him into a much more balanced offense, and putting him at 30 attempts per game. Extrapolate that to a full season, you're looking at 540 attempts, putting him right at 10th in the league. If you think Harbaugh is just going to let Herbert hand the ball off 60% of the time in the NFL, you're clinically insane. The highest run:pass ratio in the NFL last year was Baltimore at 52% run. With the vacancy of Mike Dub, Keenan Allen and Ekeler, you're looking at nearly 300 targets being vacated, and the only WR Herbert has a previous connection with is Palmer. As I am typing this, I am upset I didn't draft him. Expect a breakout year from Palmer who is due for a contract in 2025.
Worst Value, Late Rounds
CHEENO, RICO DOWDLE Round 12, Pick 1
To be honest, there isn't a late round pick that stands out to me that looks really bad. Everything from rounds 13-15 are shots in the dark, defenses or potential keeper options for future years. I don't even really hate the Dowdle pick. Rumors continue to be that he could be the starter there, but I have just a feeling he will get lost in the mix with Zeke and then Dalvin Cook when he returns. Upside is there, not much downside. I think this stands out to me because I'm grossed out when I look at Cheeno's roster and I had to pick one from his team.
Commish Draft Grades
Does not take keepers into evaluation.
Nathan: B
Ryan: B+
Probst: B
Commish: A-
Jon: B-
Jared: B+
Nick: C
Spencer: B
Worzie: B-
Cheeno: C-
Tomorrow we kick the season off! Finally, we are back. Good luck to everyone this week, except you Worzie. I know that you know that you have no chance this week. Bolt up!
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