Starting in the 2023 season, we will be overhauling the QB scoring with a new formula that brings more value to the QB position without inflating scoring throughout the season.
The first question I got asked when presenting this to some of the league members.
Why is it necessary to change the scoring? It isn't necessary, but as I've done with other changes to the league, I believe it brings more enjoyment and positional value when related to fantasy. Currently, QBs are one of the least valued positions in fantasy. When in reality, they're arguably the most important position in all of team sports, and they should be represented as such. These changes should bring more value to the QB position when drafting and when having to pick one up via the waiver wire. Additionally, there wasn't much difference between a great QB to an average QB, this new method will be able to further create a variance between the two.
So, what are the actual scoring changes? Let's cover that before we get further into answering questions.
Passing Yards (per 25)
Rushing Yards (Per 10)
Alright, now let's go through some of the changes.
Pass TD Increase: The thought behind it was simple. QBs are primarily passing, although many are running more frequently. Bringing the passing TD scoring in line with the Rushing TD scoring just made sense.
Interceptions: The NFL's interception rate continues to go down, primarily due to the changes on the defensive side of the ball that have made the game easier for QBs. Turnovers are arguably the most important statistic when predicting who wins and loses a game. Teams with a positive turnover differential win 78% of their games. Since we are increasing the Pass TD scoring, we should also further punish those who turn the ball over more frequently. Note: Why didn't we change the fumble scoring? Predictability. Interceptions are significantly easier to predict year-over-year whereas fumbles lost vary and have shown to be inconsistent.
Completions and Incompletion Scoring: A big part of playing the QB position is having an above-average completion percentage. This new scoring will play a big part in the week-to-week variance that we will cover later in the blog. Essentially, a QB that completes passes at a rate of 66.6% rate will see no positive or negative scoring over the course of a season.
For example, Kirk completed 66.7% of his throws in 2022, which would mean he only added a couple points over 18 games when taking into account the +/- for points in completions and incompletions. But, one game against Dallas, he only completed 12 of 23 passes, a 52% completion percentage. This would mean got 3 points for his completions (12 x .25), but lost 4.5 points for his incompletions (9 x .50). Meaning he was -1.5pts for his fantasy scoring that game with no other scoring taken into account.
I've done some research over the course of a season and will do a dive into how this affects the week-to-week scoring as well as a season-long outlook.
Here is the 2022 scoring, next to the "NEW" scoring, along with the fantasy points per game and the differential for both. This is currently sorted by the 2022 total season points, noted under CURRENT.
Some things you will notice:
Top QBs separate themselves further from the bad to average QBs which was the entire goal in the first place.
Patrick Mahomes would have gained an additional 40.65 total points over the course of 18 games for 2022, where as Josh Allen only would have gained 8.84 total points. Why? Patrick Mahomes completed over 66.6% of his passes, giving him a positive point total for the season, Josh Allen completed less than 66.6%, giving him a negative point total for the season. Additionally, Josh Allen threw less touchdowns, more interceptions.
When looking at points per game, here are the 2022 rankings based on the Current Fantasy Points Per Game scoring.
When comparing it to the new scoring, and then only taking the top 20 into account, since these will primarily be the only QBs used in our fantasy league, here are the amount of spots they moved in the QB rankings when sorted by the fantasy points per game.
As expected, some guys moved up and some moved down. The biggest movers in the top 10 were Geno Smith moving up 3 spots and Justin Fields moving down 3 spots. I think we would all agree, Geno Smith was the better QB than Justin Fields last year and this new scoring is reflective of that.
Let's take a look at week-to-week scoring for a single QB, in this example let's look at Justin Herbert's game logs and see the new variance in scoring.
You'll notice that most weeks there is a variance of a few points. Week for example, he would have scored 4.77pts less with the new scoring due to 55.6% completion percentage on 45 attempts. Obvious, but worth noting, the higher the passing attempts, the more important the completion percent is. Having a 55% completion percent on 45 attempts will hurt scoring more than 55% on only 25 attempts.
In week 1, he would have gained 8.46 points with the new scoring because of a 76.5% completion percentage and throwing three TDs to zero interceptions.
Now let's look at Justin Fields' game logs.
In Week 3, Justin Fields scored 6.9pts in the current scoring, but would have been ended as -1.56pts in the new scoring. It sounds punishing, but completing 47% of passes and throwing 2 interceptions is a miserable game for a QB and deserving of that. In Week 8, he would have gained 5.29pts because of his completion percentage and throwing no interceptions.
Call me crazy, but being a better QB more consistently will be reflected on scoring with larger variance now, as it should be.
Let's wrap this up with answering a few more questions.
Why is variance necessary in the QB position? As mentioned, it's the most important position. You see variance in every other position from RB, WR, TE and Defense. QB's shouldn't be excluded from that.
How does this change the value of the QB position? I am not really sure, yet... When drafting, I do feel that consistently great QBs become more valuable. Most teams only roster one QB and that one player should feel impactful. Additionally, I think it would be more punishing if you waited until the late rounds to draft a QB.
Are you doing this to devalue the rushing QBs? Not at all. Overall, rushing QBs did not change much, and in fact, most still gained in points per game. But being a rushing QB does not forfeit the fact that you still need to be able to pass the ball effeciently to succeed. They will still be valuable as QBs in the fantasy league but if they cannot pass the ball effeciently, expect to see a larger variance week-to-week.
Thanks for coming to my TED Talk and I look forward to this fantasy season. Feels so close, yet so far away.